What Happens if Project 2025 is Realized?

What is Project 2025? 

Project 2025 is a comprehensive policy blueprint developed by the Heritage Foundation aiming to reshape US governance and foreign policy. This initiative outlines a conservative vision for the future, focusing on reducing government intervention, dismantling government agencies like the Department of Homeland Security, and reducing immigration. In the realm of foreign policy, Project 2025 emphasized a shift towards greater burden-sharing with international allies, reinforcing support for key partners like Israel, and adopting a more assertive stance against adversaries like Iran. This initiative aims to reduce US intervention abroad while encouraging allies to take on more responsibility for their own defense and regional stability. If realized, these proposed changes are poised to have a significant impact on the MENA region. 

Despite what is seen in the media, former President Donald Trump has disavowed the initiative on social media and during the debate against Vice President Harris on September 10. Simultaneously, the Democratic Party connects the two as high ranking officials from former President Trump’s administration are in charge of Project 2025. For example, Ben Carson, former secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Trump Administration, and John Ratcliffe, former director of National Intelligence in the Trump Administration are listed as authors or contributors to the policy agenda within Project 2025. 

What is burden-sharing in defense? 

One of the core parts of Project 2025 is the emphasis on burden-sharing in defense. The blueprint of Project 2025 advocates for US allies, including those in the MENA region, to take greater responsibility for their own security and defense. This could lead to a reduced US military presence and support in the region, compelling countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt to increase their defense spending and capabilities. While this shift aims to alleviate the financial and logistical burden on the US, it could also prompt regional powers to bolster their military infrastructure and form new alliances to ensure their own security and sovereignty. 

In addition to reducing military presence, Project 2025 suggests reducing or even stopping several humanitarian aid missions that don’t align with US interests. This includes the US Agency for International Development Projects in Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen. For example, with the Taliban, a terrorist organization, being in control in Afghanistan and limiting the rights of many minority groups including women, these humanitarian missions are relied upon by many people. Ending aid projects like this could have a significant negative impact on these countries. Another example is the humanitarian crisis in Yemen with the ongoing Yemeni civil war and more than half of the population struggling to access food. The US has given Yemen about $6 billion in aid which would be reduced or stopped completely by Project 2025. 

What does Project 2025 say about Israel? 

Although Project 2025 emphasized burden-sharing in defense, this does not apply to Israel. Israel is mentioned several times throughout, stating “sustain support for Israel even as America empowers Gulf partners to take responsibility for their own coastal, air, and missile defenses.” The policy blueprint maintains its “ironclad” commitment to the 2016 Memorandum of Understanding, an Israeli-US agreement providing Israel $3.8 billion in US military aid annually until 2028. This enhanced support for Israel could lead to greater stability and security for Israel, but it might also exacerbate tensions with neighboring countries and non-state actors opposed to Israeli policies, especially with the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict. 

What does Project 2025 say about Iran? 

A significant aspect of Project 2025’s foreign policy is its hardline approach towards Iran. The blueprint calls for increased sanctions and a robust strategy to counter Iran’s influence in the MENA region. Part of this strategy includes continuing to arm Israel in an attempt to counter Iran. This aggressive stance on Iran aims to diminish the nation’s ability to destabilize the region, but it also risks escalating tension and potentially leading to further conflicts.

Additional Reading:

Full Project 2025 Mandate

Project 2025: The conservative blueprint that may shape America’s global role after the 2024 election

What could Project 2025 mean for the rest of the world? 

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