In the midst of ongoing civilian massacres in Gaza, The Lancet medical journal emerged with a jarring statistic on the immensity of deaths in Gaza earlier this month. According to researchers who have studied the rising death toll in Gaza, it is plausible that up to 186,000 people have been killed or will die as a result of Israel’s campaign in the Strip and its aftermath. This number would account for nearly 8% of Gaza’s pre-war population of 2.1 million people— about 1 in every 12 Gazans murdered in less than a year. The statistic is more than five times higher than the death toll currently reported by the Gaza Health Ministry, which, as of last week, estimated that over 38,000 Palestinians have died so far. Due to factors unaccounted for by other counts, The Lancet conservatively suggests that for every one reported death, there are likely four more associated with the war. Take a look at how Lancet researchers derived this new statistic, how previous death tolls were estimated, and recent criticism of the validity of the count.
How Did Scientists Determine This Number?
The death toll reported by various Lancet scientists and researchers accounts for variables other statistics do not consider, including diseases, famine, and depleted medical infrastructure. Fatalities in Gaza caused by Israeli offensive forces are not only isolated to those deaths recorded by hospitals or morgues. The ruin of Gaza’s infrastructure after months of unrelenting war compounds added factors that lead to more deaths than originally speculated.
According to the study, 35% of Gaza’s buildings were destroyed as of April—a value that is now estimated to be over 50%. As a result, thousands of people are currently unaccounted for, unable to be identified as dead or alive under the rubble. The researchers claim that this number is at least 10,000 people—more than 25% of the official death toll that is currently excluded from the ministry’s statistics.Â
Other causes of death are as of yet unmeasurable, as Gaza’s infrastructure and healthcare systems rapidly deteriorate under bombardment and overexhaustion. Famine is rampant, aid supplies arrive in inadequate levels, and crops are demolished by war. The infrastructure that provides clean drinking water is becoming brackish and undrinkable; damaged sewage systems and other forms of contamination, such as seawater poured by Israeli forces affecting groundwater, make what water is available a hazard for the spread of disease.Â
Additionally, the study observes that healthcare infrastructure won’t be able to meet the needs of Gazan civilians because of continued bombings of hospitals and medical centers. Severely diminished funding to UNRWA, one of the main organizations providing humanitarian aid in Palestine, along with limited shelter and safe zones also keep Palestinians vulnerable. With all these factors compounding, deaths will continue to rise—even in the aftermath of a ceasefire—before Gazan society has the time and capacity to rebuild.Â
How Does the Gaza Health Ministry Calculate Their Current Estimate?
In the first months of the war, the ministry tallied deaths only through the bodies of victims who were identified upon arrival at hospitals or morgues. However, the intensity of the war has complicated this; an overwhelming number of murdered Palestinians were unidentified. By May, the ministry included unidentified dead in their count.
Unlike the Lancet report, the ministry does not include people who are missing or those believed to have died from other causes related to the war.Â
Criticism of The Lancet’s Estimate
Israeli media has quickly denounced the 186,000 death toll estimate, arguing that the report is not peer-reviewed. However, this skepticism is not shared globally. UN officials, such as UN Special Rapporteur on Palestinian Territories Francesca Albanese, expressed their belief in the report’s determination. The UN Human Rights Office and Humanitarian Research Lab at Yale University agree that the true figure is likely higher than the current estimate of nearly 40,000.
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